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Home Price Index Shows Values Down 19 Percent From Peak

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HPI delta from peakHome values dropped for the sixth straight month in March 2011, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index. The Home Price Index is a government-sponsored home value tracker.

The HPI report is the latest in a string of “falling home values” stories — a trend that’s troubling home sellers nationwide.

However, although the Home Price Index says home values are falling, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are. Like most statistics in the housing sector, the Home Price Index is plagued by poor methodologies and a lack of timeliness.

In short, the Home Price Index is flawed. In three ways.

The first big flaw in the Home Price Index is that it only measures the values of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Homes financed via FHA, or via other means are specifically excluded from the calculation. For today’s purchase market, that leaves more than 1 in 4 homes “uncounted” — a big percentage of the market.

Second, the Home Price Index determines home values by measuring price change from sale to subsequent sale. This eliminates new homes — a major market segment.

And, lastly, the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay; we’re only now seeing data from March. This two-month lag renders the HPI a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you’re a home buyer looking for market insight, the HPI can’t give it — it’s out-dated and out of season.

Despite its shortcomings, though, we can’t ignore the Home Price Index completely. It’s among the most thorough home valuation models available, and it’s used in public policy discussions. When the HPI says prices are down, Wall Street and Capitol Hill take notice, and that trickles down to everyday life on Main Street.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 19.1 percent.

New Home Sales Increase For The Second Straight Month

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New Home Supply 2010-2011Sales of newly-built homes surprised Wall Street, jumping 7 percent to an seasonally-adjusted, annualized 323,000 units last month.

In addition, the supply of new homes dropped to 6.5 months — a 2-month decrease from October 2010 and the best reading in a year.

The report runs counter to recent reports from the National Association of Homebuilders and the National Association of REALTORS® which suggest a looming housing slowdown. April’s New Home Sales report runs counter to that theory; it shows ongoing, steady, staggered improvement in terms of sales volume and sales inventory.

Broken-down by sales prices, the New Home Sales report also showed that homes are selling across all price tiers. The “luxury market” improved most:

  • Up to $199,999 : +1,000 homes from March
  • $200,000 to $399,999 : +2,000 homes from March
  • $400,000 and over : +3,000 homes from March

These figures suggest that that move-up buyers — not first-timers — are driving the new home market. Homes under $200,000 now account for just 40% new home sales, down from 46% a year ago.

However, as with most months, it’s important that we recognize the New Home Sales data’s margin of error. Although New Home Sales showed a 7% improvement in April, the reported margin of error was ±17%. This means that the actual reading could have been as high as 24 percent, or as low as -10 percent. 

It’s a huge range, and because it encompasses both positive and negative values, the Census Bureau assigned its April reading “zero confidence”. It’s right there in the footnotes.

For home buyers , rising sales and falling supply may mean higher home prices. And, combined with the issuance of fewer building permits, supplies may be constrained into the summer months. This, too, would pressure home prices higher.

Memorial Day Messes With Mortgage Rates

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Vacation weeks are rough on mortgage ratesMortgage rates across the state are near year-to-date lows, but locking them in this week may be difficult. As Memorial Day nears, and Wall Streeters get a head-start on the long weekends, trade volume in the mortgage bond markets will dip.

When bond volume drops, mortgage rates get jumpy. It’s a relationship based more on scarcity than actual market fundamentals.

It works like this:

  1. Conforming and FHA mortgage rates are based on the “market price” of a mortgage-backed bond
  2. Mortgage-backed bonds can’t be bought or sold without a buyer and a seller at a specific price

As Friday gets closer this week, and more and more Wall Street traders will leave for their “extended” 3-day weekend, and bond markets will be left with fewer and fewer participants. This will create a market situation in which it’s harder to match a buyer and seller at any given bond price, resulting in larger mortgage rate shifts than usual.

These jumps in rates are exaggerated during periods of economic uncertainty like these. What’s more, there’s a lot of economically-important data due for release this week. That, too, can put markets in hysterics.

If this were a “normal” week, mortgage rates would be volatile. The coming of Memorial Day is just adding to the mix.

Mortgage rates may rise this week, or they may fall.  Either way, if you have the opportunity to lock something favorable, consider doing it.  Rates are low and likely won’t last.

All-Natural Pest And Weed Control For Your Garden

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If you’ve spent time making your garden look great this spring, you’ll want to spend time helping it stay that way through the summer. This brief video will teach you how to keep your yard pest- and weed-free using eco-friendly products and nature, itself — all without the use of dangerous chemicals.

Some of the tips in the video include:

  • Planting flowering nectar-bearing plants to attract “beneficial” insects
  • Using electronic repellents and netting to keep pests away
  • Adding a bird feeder to your yard

And, of course, you’ll want to use all-natural pesticides made from the extracted oils and fruits and spices which, when combined, keep weeds and bugs under control.

One thing to remember with respect to lawn care, though, is that “organic” doesn’t always mean “greener”. Spot-application of a chemical-based product may best for your lawn’s particular needs, and you should consider using harsher, traditional pesticides when needed.

When in doubt, talk to a lawn care specialist.

Distressed Homes Now Selling At A 20 Percent Discount

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Existing Home Sales April 2011The housing market recovery stalled last month. At least temporarily.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales slipped 1 percent in April from the month prior, falling to 5.05 million units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. The reading is exactly in-line with report’s 6-month average which also reads 5.05 million units.

The data may appear “average”, but there’s another angle to consider. 

In April, as compared to March, the supply of existing homes for sales spiked. At the current pace of home sales, it would now take 9.2 months to exhaust today’s complete home inventory. This is almost one full month worse than March. It’s the worst home supply reading of the year.

There are also more homes “on the market” today than at any time since September 2010.

Other noteworthy statistics in the April Existing Home Sales report include:

  • 31 percent of all homes sold in April were purchased with cash
  • First-time home buyers bought 36 percent of all homes in April
  • Distressed properties typically sold at a 20 percent discount

This “discount”, it should be noted, is a major reason why distressed properties accounted for 37 percent of the home resales in April. Home buyers are finding bargains when they’re willing to consider homes in various stages of foreclosure and short sale.

Overall, the April Existing Home Sales report represents opportunity for home buyers. Home sales are stagnant, supplies are rising and there’s no shortage of properties from which to choose. Furthermore, mortgage rates remain low.

If you’re considering a home purchase this fall, home supply may not be as ample, and financing conditions may not be as favorable, post-Labor Day. Talk to your real estate agent about what’s possible today. You may want to move up your time frame.

Fed Minutes Put The Heat On Mortgage Rates To Rise

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FOMC Meeting MinutesThe Federal Reserve released its April 2011 Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes Wednesday. In the hours since, mortgage markets have worsened; rates are higher by 1/8 percent this morning, at least.

The “Fed Minutes” is published 8 times annually, three week after each scheduled FOMC meeting. The minutes are the Federal Reserve’s official recap of the conversations and debates that shaped the prior FOMC session.

Another way to consider the Fed Minutes is as the companion piece to the more well-known FOMC press release. The press release is issued on the day of adjournment, and is brief, narrow, and high-level. The statement makes broad comments on the economy and outlines new monetary policy.

By contrast, the Fed Minutes is delayed, lengthy, and rife with details. The minutes highlights arguments and discussion points between Fed members, and digs deep into underlying economic issues.

The FOMC press release is measured in paragraphs. The Fed Minutes is measured in pages.

Here is some of what the Fed discussed last month:

  • On inflation : Higher levels are “transitory”; will level-off with commodity prices
  • On housing : The market remains depressed. “Vacant properties” are harming construction.
  • On stimulus : The Fed will stick to its $600 billion support plan

In addition, at its meeting, the Federal Reserve discussed an exit strategy for its market support. The details are undecided, but the debate shows that the Fed is anticipated a change in policy sometime soon. 

Wall Street estimates that a gradual economic tightening will begin within 12 months.

Mortgage rates have been fading since mid-April. The Fed Minutes may be the catalyst of a reversal. The Federal Reserve expects growth in the U.S. economy and growth tends to boost stock markets at the expense of bonds.

As bond markets fall, mortgage rates rise.

Currently, Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as 4.63% — the lowest of the year.

How Your Business Can Benefit from a Blog

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In the 21st Century information age of Google, Facebook, Twitter and iPhones being connected and having a web presence is a must.  If you have a business whether it be in its infancy or well established opportunities for growth exist online. Every business especially those that provide services to the public, Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, Lawyers just to name a few should have a web presence. You need a website to attract customers in the new millennium.  But having a website alone might not be enough? To increase traffic one needs to be engaged in Internet marketing more so than just being listed on Google and placing ads.  Social networking sites are a great way to form a fresh young client base.  Facebook and Twitter are sites consumers are using to connect to their favorite brands.  One of the best ways to provide constant updates on your business, your products or services on social networking sites is to maintain a blog.

A blog? Isn’t that for political and news junkies and teenage girls who follow celebrity crushes and entertainment news?  Is it really for a business?  Absolutely! Businesses are catching on to the world of blogging.  Blogs are for everything and are for everyone!  Many blogs look professional and offer updates on areas of your business’s expertise.  A stock broker or agency may write about the pulse of the market.  Real Estate agents will often give tips and feedback to buyers and sellers, show market trends in the price of houses.  As a business you are offering something free, a sample of your services online to everyone to establish both a rapport and a sense that you are the expert.  The idea is for the consumer to remember this and in return offer you their business.  The goal is to establish a sense of credibility so the next time the consumer whom browses your site needs a service they come to you in trust.

A blog is the best Internet marketing tool because updates and posts can automatically be posted to Twitter and Facebook.  Both Blogger and WordPress are free services that have great hosting abilities and plenty of templates.  In addition with just a click of a button the latest post is added to your Facebook page with a description and picture.  It will even update your Twitter status using the title of the post and link to article.  This is an automatic way to increase traffic.  Twitter is the ultimate free traffic maximizer!  It is a system in which people follow you have your Tweets updated on their homepage.  You could have thousands of people seeing your new post every day.  If you do Twitter right it is easy to get a couple thousand of followers within a few weeks.

Additionally, blogs are great for search engine optimization (SEO) because they often have more posts and constant daily hits due to the updating search engines tend to pick them up faster.  A blog is a must for extreme traffic and sales!

Building Permits Fade Faster Than Expected

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Housing Starts (May 2009-April 2011)Single-family housing starts dropped by 21,000 units in April on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

The Housing Starts report measures the number of homes on which new construction “broke ground”. It’s tracked by the U.S. Department of Commerce which releases new data monthly.

Single-family housing starts fell 5 percent as compared to March 2011, and 30 percent as compared to April one year ago. 

The figures were worse than what Wall Street expected. For just the second time in 2 years, monthly single-family housing starts dropped below 400,000 units. In addition, single-family Building Permits fell in April as well, shedding 2 percent from March.

A building permit is a local government’s approval to start home construction and when permits are down, new construction follows. This is because 93 percent of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.

Fewer permits, as a consequence, means fewer new homes. Therefore, if you’re looking at new construction , April’s numbers may spark a sense of urgency.

Home prices are a function of home supply and demand and, based on the Housing Starts data, supplies appear headed for a fall. Meanwhile, on the other side of the equation, demand should be rising — foot traffic is higher, mortgage rates are lower, and job growth is picking up. 

This should lead new home prices higher in time. For now, though, home affordability remains high.

It’s a good time to look at new home construction.

Home Builders Seeing More Sales Today; Fewer Sales Tomorrow

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NAHB HMI Index 2009-2010Home builder confidence can’t shake its range, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The group’s monthly Housing Market Index put May’s builder confidence reading at a level of 16.

The Housing Market Index is scored on a scale of 1-100. A reading above 50 suggests favorable conditions for the new home housing market, as reported by home builders. A reading below 50 suggests unfavorable conditions.

May marks the sixth time in 7 months that the HMI posted a 16, the longest such plateau in the index’s history.

The HMI has not posted higher than 50 since April 2006.

As an index, the HMI is a composite of three separate surveys sent to home builders each month. The surveys are meant to capture the current and projected single-family home sales volume, in addition to buyer foot traffic levels.

Versus April, there was little change:

  • Current single-family sales : 16 (+1 from April)
  • Projected single-family sales : 20 (-2 from April)
  • Buyer foot traffic : 14 (+1 from April)

Broken down, the Housing Market Index for May shows that home builders are experiencing a boost in sales and foot traffic today, but expect that boost to fade between today and November. For home buyers , this can present an opportunity.

With home builder confidence stagnating, and with a worsening sales expectation for the next 6 months, builders may be more willing to negotiate with you on home prices and/or the costs of upgrades. Builders may also be more willing to make concessions in your sales contract that would otherwise be unavailable to you.

Your real estate agent can help you to identify the negotiable items of your offer.

In addition, today’s home buyers can exploit the recent strength of the mortgage market. Surging mortgage bond demand since April has pushed mortgage rates down to their lowest levels of the year. If you can find a home you love, therefore, it can be financed on the (relative) cheap, too.

Conforming mortgage rates fell through 5 consecutive weeks before rising last week.

My Home Is Flooded. What Do I Do?

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How To Respond To A FloodWith large swaths of the country bracing for an historic Mississippi River flood, it’s important to remember that floods aren’t just regional.

Flood waters can strike any city, in any state, at any time. According to FloodSmart.gov, floods are the #1 most common disaster in the United States. $709 million in flood insurance claims were paid to households, businesses, and renters in 2010 — more than one-third of which went to people outside of “high-risk areas”.

Should a flood hit your home or place of business, will you know what to do? The first 24 hours are crucial.

First, make sure that your home is safe from danger. Floods can damage a home’s structural integrity, creating cracks and gaps in its foundation, among other problems. If you see any such damage, your home may be unsafe for re-entry.

Next, check for exposed power lines and damaged gas and sewer pipes. Notify your local utility company and be prepared to wait for a service representative. During times of natural disaster, utility companies receive a lot of inbound phone calls.

A good follow-up is to disconnect your home’s power at its circuit breaker. This way, electricity can’t mix with water in your home by accident — a potentially lethal combination.

Once your home is safe, use a camera to document damage. Note: Do this before you start removing water or making repairs because it’s evidence for the insurers.

You’ll also want to throw out food and other items that have come into contact with flood waters. Flood waters may contain raw sewage and other contaminants that can harm you.

Lastly, contact your insurer and explain your situation. Be sure to follow your insurer’s exact instructions because you don’t want to do something that will void your claim. If you plan to make an immediate repair, notify your agent. Document your conversation with date, time, and topics discussed.

Like utility companies, your insurer may be overwhelmed with phone calls during a local flood. Optionally, you may call your insurer’s headquarters instead. 

Just one inch of water can cause serious damage to your home. When flood waters hit, know what to do.

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Questions?

If you have a question about how any of this works, just give me a call at 214-212-6910.

You can also email me at: Rob@RobWheelock.com.

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